Gas Prices and Senate Forecasts...

After Katrina, Iraq and flagrant violations of the constitution, I thought Bush had a pretty low ceiling for approval. But recent polls show him with a modest rebound this month (44% in a recent Gallup Poll). Not surprising, they come on the heels of tumbling gas prices. Remember how Bush hit a low point in the summer of 2004 as gas prices rose, then rebounded to win in the fall as prices fell back to normal? Call me paranoid, but I'm paranoid.


Scary.

However, while Bush might not hurt the GOP as much as we hope, our chances look better every day for taking the Senate. A combination of great challengers, boatloads of cash and a national climate that favors us put Democrats in great position for the upset of a generation.

Democrats are already poised for solid victories in 4 states:

Montana:
Sen. Conrad Burns loves to reprimand firefighters and work with Jack Abramoff. The combination has him in a deep hole in this Red-trending-Blue state that already has a Democratic Governor and Senator. Democratic challenger Jon Tester has a spotless record, a farming pedigree and a great grassroots campaign. Advantage: Tester

Rhode Island:
Sen. Lincoln Chafee may be the most liberal republican in the Senate. He didn't vote for Bush II in 2004 (he cast a write-in vote for his father), and drew a strong primary battle from completely unelectable right winger Steve Laffey. Still, after putting down the rebellion against his candidacy, he jumped out of the frying pan and into....the frying pan. Polls have him trailing challenger Sheldon Whitehouse by 5-8 points, due to Rhode Island's strong blue tint. Advantage: Whitehouse

Ohio:
Corruption has shaken the state republican party to the core. In the fallout, Democrats are likely to win the Governor's race in a landslide and Senator Mike Dewine is guilty by party association. Liberal U.S. Representative Sherrod Brown holds a small but consistent lead over Dewine. Advantage: Brown

Pennsylvania:
Rick Santorum may be too conservative for every state but Kansas. That doesn't bode well for him in Pennslyvania, where he is losing pretty badly (8-10%) to State Treasurer Bob Casey. If Democrats win any race at all in 2006, it should be this one.

So that leaves us with a 48-51 Republican Senate (with 1 independent, Sanders of Vermont). Democrats need two more wins to clinch a 50-49 majority. Luckily, three races look imminently ripe for the taking.

Virginia: Racist Senator George Allen fell from grace after his "Macaca" incident and didn't help his cause by getting defensive over a debate question about his Jewish grandfather. Democrat Jim Webb, Reagan's Secretary of the Navy, seems like the perfect candidate to take advantage of this, with a conservative background and progressive message. Polls show this race dead locked. Webb has all the momentum, though Allen has all the cash.

Missouri: My home state. I want this one pretty bad. Republican Jim Talent is a nice guy, but that may not be enough to hide a 94% voting record with Bush. Popular centrist democrat and state auditor Claire McCaskill is in a dead heat with Talent. She may have pulled the move of the election cycle with her brilliant idea to purchase Rams' football tickets (in order to keep the game from being blacked out) and donate them to local charities. Polls show a slight McCaskill lead, but this is a fight to the wire.

Tennessee:
This is an open seat vacated by Bill Frist (yay!). Republicans should have been favored, but former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) has serious charges on two fronts (using his office for personal profit and leaving 9-1-1 lines unanswered) that have caused him to slip behind conservative Democrat Harold Ford Jr.

Democrats have a 50-50% chance of winning any of these seats. They're all essentially tied right now.

Wildcards:
Joe Liebermann could ruin everyone's good time if he defeats upstart Democratic nominee Ned Lamont in Connecticut and quits the party.

Bob Menendez of NJ should have been a lock for re-election after taking John Corzine's seat in 2005. Unfortunately, he's got corruption charges that have cost him his slim lead. His challenger, Tom Kean Jr, son of the former New Jersey governor and has run a good campaign. This is honestly the GOP's only shot at a senate pick-up, but if they pull it off, you can pretty much say goodbye to a Democratic US Senate in 2007.

They'll need a lot of breaks, but the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has twice as much money to spend as the republicans and they're only playing defense in one state. Thats going to be a big help for democratic challengers. I think the democrats take both chambers with razor thin majorities, including a 50-49-1 senate. Call me crazy if you want to.

-Aaron