News!
A couple bits today. Rasmussen released a poll yesterday that put Hatch up 50-46% on Pawlenty. I saw this and I thought "thats weird. I haven't seen any poll with so few undecideds and with Hatch opening up a lead"... and then it hit me-- stupid Rasmussen didn't include Hutchinson in the poll. Hutchinson pulls most of his votes from democrats. So while this poll shows how strong Hatch's position would be in a two-person race, its also a strong reminder of how devastating Hutchinson could be to Dmocratic control of the Governor's mansion.
Also, Patty Wetterling got tapped to deliver the Democratic Party's response to the President's weekly address this weekend. In the wake of Foleygate, she's the logical voice to represent the left. This is a big chance for Wetterling to get national exposure. I wasn't really impressed with the TV commercial she produced right after this story broke, so now is her chance to really grab her district's attention. I know this race leans republican, but I can't help thinking its now hers to lose.
-Aaron
Also, Patty Wetterling got tapped to deliver the Democratic Party's response to the President's weekly address this weekend. In the wake of Foleygate, she's the logical voice to represent the left. This is a big chance for Wetterling to get national exposure. I wasn't really impressed with the TV commercial she produced right after this story broke, so now is her chance to really grab her district's attention. I know this race leans republican, but I can't help thinking its now hers to lose.
-Aaron
posted by U-DFL @ 10/07/2006 02:24:00 PM
3 Comments:
At 10/07/2006 10:02:00 PM ,
Anonymous said...
Aaron- your polling analysis is all wrong. Rasmussen is picking up a Dem surge and the 50-46 comes from reassigning weak voters among Pawlenty, Hatch without Hutchinson- it turns remarkably that Pawlenty's supporters are week.
Without reassignment the race is 44 Hatch, 42 Pawlenty, 9 Hutchinson and in fact Rasmussen shows that Hutch polls exactly even from Hatch and Pawlenty and is tending towards pulling from Pawlenty more when looking at the trends.
Rather than citing old Nader paranoia you should do a little research. Center parties (as opposed to the Green party) tend to impact the weaker of the two big parties at that point in time. This is why Hutchinson is starting to pull more out of Pawlenty column- it is an exact mirror of Perot 1992 actually.
Frankly you want Hutchinson in there- too bad Nader 2000 has blurred out Perot 1992, which was a much much larger effect.
One other note btw- Hutchinson is at the exact same level of support as Ventura in 1998 and has four times as much money despite lower name recognition... be careful
At 10/08/2006 01:20:00 PM ,
U-DFL said...
I'm not really sure how to argue this-- your sentences are poorly worded. Hutchinson worked for two democrats. He. is. a. democrat. according to this poll (which i cant find anywhere on the net) Hatch loses 6 points when he runs and Pawlenty loses 4. thats not an even split....
Hutchinson is not helping Hatch. Thats a simple fact. He may campaign in the middle, but he'll peel a lot more disaffected democrats than republicans.
At 10/08/2006 11:28:00 PM ,
Anonymous said...
typing too fast at 2AM last night. I actually have the crosstabs- he is pulling evenly from Hatch and Pawlenty, left and right. I also know from considerable research on strategic voting that the weaker of the two big parties at that point in time is hurt the most by a center third party independent. Nader does not apply.
If you get much deeper into the crosstabs you will see this effect. Let me ask you a question? Hatch's debate skills suck so why is Pawlenty the one pulling out of the three way debates if supposedly only has everything to gain by exposing Hutchinson?
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